AOSIS proposes elements on the 2013-2015 Review for SBSTA/SBI Draft Conclusions2015-06-03 AOSIS
The SBSTA and SBI considered the final factual report of the structured expert dialogue (SED) of the 2013-2015 Review as well as submissions by Parties. The SBSTA and SBI, based on consideration of the final factual report and submissions by Parties, noted with grave concern that, according to the best available scientific knowledge, “significant climate impacts are already occurring at the current level of global warming and additional magnitudes of warming will only increase the risk of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts.“ The SBSTA and SBI further notes, among other inputs captured in the final factual report that are relevant to the achievement of the ultimate objective of the Convention, that: “in a world 2 °C warmer than in pre-industrial times, the rate of climate change would become too rapid for some species to move sufficiently fast and migrate to their preferred temperature zones; long-term sea level rise may exceed 1 m; Arctic summer sea ice will be further significantly reduced; some unique systems would be at high risk; the risks of combined ocean warming and acidification would become high, and, for some phenomena such as mass coral bleaching, very high; and crop production would be at high risk with some potential for adaptation. Many more moderate and high risks would emerge: indigenous people would be at risk of loss of land and cultural and natural heritage, and cultural practices embedded in livelihoods would be disrupted.” 3 The SBSTA and SBI further noted, based on the inputs from the SED report, that limiting global warming to below 1.5 °C would come with several advantages, including avoiding or significantly reducing risks, for example, to food production or unique and threatened systems such as coral reefs or many parts of the cryosphere, including the risk of sea level rise.4 Accordingly, SBSTA and SBI recommended that limiting warming to below 1.5°C be used as the benchmark for the elaboration of the long-term temperature goal and the overall level of mitigation ambition in the work of the ADP, including for the Secretariat’s synthesis report on the aggregate effect of the intended nationally determined contributions (iNDCs) communicated by Parties.5 The SBSTA and SBI recommended that the COP adopt a decision that: (1) Notes that, based on the work of the SED, the goal to hold the increase in global average temperature below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels is inadequate in view of the ultimate objective of the Convention; (2) Notes that limiting warming to below 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels would avoid or significantly reduce impacts, risks, adaptation needs and loss and damage; (3) Decides that, based on the work of the SED, the goal to hold the increase in global average temperature below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels is inadequate in view of the ultimate objective of the Convention and there is therefore a need to strengthen the global goal based upon limiting warming below 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels; and (4) Decides to request the IPCC to ensure that the lowest marker scenario to be used in its Sixth Assessment Report is consistent with limiting warming below 1.5°C by 2100.
Sub Topic: Science